Serie A
Genoa vs 
Napoli Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 13.4% at 0-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Genoa have averaged 0.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, Napoli 2.0 and 0.6 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 39.9% for over 2.5 and 67.1% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0-1 | 13.4% |
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 0-0 | 10.9% |
| 0-2 | 9.7% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% |
| 1-0 | 8.6% |
| 2-1 | 5.7% |
| 0-3 | 4.5% |
Score probability grid
| Genoa \ Napoli | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 13% | 10% | 4% | 2% | · |
| 1 | 9% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 4% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Genoa goals, columns = Napoli. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 13.4%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
Looking at totals, the model sees 39.9% for three or more goals and 67.1% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With Napoli favoured at 48.0%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Genoa 0 · 2 draws · Napoli 3 · 3.4 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Genoa vs Napoli?
The model's most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Napoli is 0-1 at 13.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
AI experts on this match
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| corner_specialist v1.0 | corners_under_10.5 |
More Serie A, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.