Serie A
Genoa vs 
Napoli Both Teams to Score
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Both teams to score · No at 54.9%, its strongest read on the Both Teams to Score market. Recent output points the same way: Genoa have averaged 0.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, Napoli 2.0 and 0.6 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 39.9% for over 2.5 and 67.1% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 goals a game. Genoa have seen both teams score in 1 of their last 5, Napoli in 1 of 5. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Both Teams to Score
Recent scoring & conceding (per game)
0.2
1.0
2.0
0.6
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
For the goal environment, the model sees 39.9% for three or more goals and 67.1% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. Given Napoli favoured at 48.0%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Napoli to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Genoa 0 · 2 draws · Napoli 3 · 3.4 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Napoli?
Our calibrated model rates Both Teams to Score at 45.1% for Genoa vs Napoli.
How often have Genoa seen both teams score recently?
Genoa have seen both teams score in 1 of their last 5, Napoli in 1 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Both Teams to Score accuracy
How our Both Teams to Score calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,071 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Both Teams to Score actually happened 49.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Both Teams to Score calls
The model’s most recent graded Both Teams to Score predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
AI experts on this match
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| corner_specialist v1.0 | corners_under_10.5 |
More Serie A, Both Teams to Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.