Serie A
Genoa vs 
Napoli Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 46.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. On the result, Napoli are favoured at 48.0%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Genoa vs Napoli. It tips Napoli for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
On the result, Napoli are favoured at 48.0%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Napoli to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Genoa 0 · 2 draws · Napoli 3 · 3.4 goals/game.
FAQ
How many cards in Genoa vs Napoli?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 46.3% for Genoa vs Napoli.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Cards-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 29 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
AI experts on this match
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| corner_specialist v1.0 | corners_under_10.5 |
More Serie A, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.