Premier League
Aston Villa vs 
Newcastle Over / Under 1.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 1.5 goals at 81.6%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 1.5 Goals market. For context, Newcastle are favoured at 40.5%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Goal line guide
| Line | Over |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 81.6% |
| Over 2.5 | 59.2% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Newcastle to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
FAQ
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Over / Under 1.5 Goals-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Premier League, Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.