Premier League
Aston Villa vs 
Newcastle Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely · 11.5% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. That fits an open goals environment: 59.2% for over 2.5 and 81.6% for at least two goals. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
| 0-1 | 6.8% |
| 1-0 | 6.4% |
| 2-2 | 6.4% |
| 0-2 | 5.8% |
| 2-0 | 5.2% |
Score probability grid
| Aston Villa \ Newcastle | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 6% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 | 5% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Aston Villa goals, columns = Newcastle. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11.5%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
On the goals side, the model sees 59.2% for three or more goals and 81.6% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Newcastle favoured at 40.5%, a close contest often produces chances at both ends.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Aston Villa vs Newcastle?
The model's most likely scoreline for Aston Villa vs Newcastle is 1-1 at 11.5%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 30 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Premier League, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.