Premier League
Aston Villa vs 
Newcastle Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 63.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. On the result, Newcastle are favoured at 40.5%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Aston Villa vs Newcastle. Slightly more cards are projected for Newcastle for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
On the result, Newcastle are favoured at 40.5%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Newcastle to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
FAQ
How many cards in Aston Villa vs Newcastle?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 63.0% for Aston Villa vs Newcastle.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Cards-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 29 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.