Ligue 1
Toulouse vs 
Lyon Win to Nil
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely win to nil at 19.2%, its strongest read on the Win to Nil market. For context, Toulouse are favoured at 38.4%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Win to Nil
Probability a side wins without conceding, derived from the model score matrix. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
In-depth analysis
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Toulouse to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Toulouse 2 · 1 draws · Lyon 2 · 2.8 goals/game.
FAQ
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Win to Nil-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Ligue 1, Win to Nil
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.