Toulouse vs Lyon prediction & probabilities (2026-08-22)

By /

Toulouse vs Lyon: model prediction

Ligue 1
Toulouse

LDWWD

Sat, 22 Aug 202619:45UK
Lyon

WWWLL

Model’s top convictions

77%

Over 1.5 goals

65%

Toulouse or draw

62%

Draw or Lyon

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
ToulouseWin probability
38.4%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals76.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.31
Toulouse or draw64.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.55
Draw or Lyon61.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.62

Model read

▾

Expect a tight one: the model splits Toulouse and Lyon almost evenly, Toulouse marginally on top at 38%. The numbers that frame it: • Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. • Zakaria Aboukhlal drives the home shot volume, 1.3 on target per 90. • The recent series reads 2 wins for Toulouse, 1 draws and 2 for Lyon over 5 games, 2.8 goals on average. Recent form reads W2 D2 L2 for Toulouse against W4 D0 L2 for Lyon. The engine passes here; discipline beats action.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners39.0%@ 2.56
Lyon win35.5%@ 2.82
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners60.0%@ 1.67
Both teams to score56.3%@ 1.78
Over 2.5 goals51.8%@ 1.93
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.7%@ 7.89
2-1 correct score8.5%@ 11.75
1-0 correct score8.5%@ 11.81

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Toulouse

38.4%

Draw

26.1%

Lyon

35.5%

Model

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.576.5%

Strong chance

Over 2.551.8%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes56.3%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.0%

Strong chance

Over 9.549.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.539.0%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.8%

Low chance

Most cornersToulouse 55.1% · Lyon 34.2%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.5%2.551.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.576.5%

Discipline: NO_ODDS.

Form & head-to-head

ToulouseLDWWD
LyonWWWLL

Last 5 meetings: Toulouse 2 · 1 draws · Lyon 2 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-05-10Toulouse 2-1 Lyon
2025-10-05Lyon 1-2 Toulouse
2025-01-18Lyon 0-0 Toulouse
2024-09-29Toulouse 1-2 Lyon
2024-03-15Toulouse 2-3 Lyon

Season stats

Season 2025/26, real results only

ToulouseLyon
League position#9 of 18#4 of 18
Record W-D-L12-9-1318-6-10
Current streakD1L2
Points per game1.321.76
Record, home vs away6-6-56-5-6
PPG, home vs away1.411.35
Goals scored per game1.381.56
Goals conceded per game1.351.18
Scored, home vs away1.471.35
Conceded, home vs away1.411.29
1st half goals per game0.590.79
2nd half goals per game0.790.76
Corners won per game4.45.9
Cards per game2.42.0
Fouls per game14.113.0
Red cards this season57
Shots on target per game4.24.7
xG for per game1.401.62
xG against per game1.341.41
Over 2.5 rate

52.9%55.9%

BTTS rate

47.1%50.0%

Clean sheets

29.4%44.1%

Rates this season:ToulouseLyon

League averages this season: 2.82 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 53% · BTTS in 51%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Zakaria AboukhlalToulouse · key player
To score23.9%

@ 4.18

1+ on target64.7%

@ 1.55

2+ shots69.7%

@ 1.43

Shots/90 2.93SoT/90 1.26Goals/90 0.33
EndrickLyon · key player
To score26.8%

@ 3.73

1+ on target79.0%

@ 1.27

2+ shots81.0%

@ 1.23

Shots/90 3.53SoT/90 1.8Goals/90 0.36
EmersonnToulouse · in form
To score23.1%

@ 4.33

1+ on target50.6%

@ 1.98

2+ shots56.4%

@ 1.77

Shots/90 3.03SoT/90 1.13Goals/90 0.42
Georges MikautadzeLyon · in form
To score28.2%

@ 3.55

1+ on target56.5%

@ 1.77

2+ shots54.7%

@ 1.83

Shots/90 3.77SoT/90 1.71Goals/90 0.68
Joshua KingToulouse · in form
To score19.3%

@ 5.18

1+ on target51.1%

@ 1.96

2+ shots53.3%

@ 1.88

Shots/90 2.67SoT/90 1.07Goals/90 0.32
Alexandre LacazetteLyon · in form
To score39.6%

@ 2.53

1+ on target70.8%

@ 1.41

2+ shots58.5%

@ 1.71

Shots/90 2.54SoT/90 1.59Goals/90 0.65

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Toulouse win2.61
Draw3.74
Lyon win2.86
Both teams to score1.78

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.31
Over 2.5 goals1.93
Over 3.5 goals3.37
Toulouse most2.61
Lyon most2.86

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.35
Over 8.5 corners1.60
Over 9.5 corners1.98
Over 10.5 corners2.58
Toulouse most1.81
Lyon most2.92

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.31
Over 3.5 cards1.76
Over 4.5 cards2.67
Over 5.5 cards4.60
Toulouse most2.29
Lyon most2.80

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.32
Over 7.5 SoT1.56
Over 8.5 SoT1.94
Over 9.5 SoT2.53
Toulouse most1.98
Lyon most2.71

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.63
Over 24.5 shots2.05
Over 26.5 shots2.74
Over 28.5 shots3.89
Toulouse most1.60
Lyon most3.18

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.28
Over 22.5 fouls1.52
Over 24.5 fouls1.92
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 75.6% Over 7.5 64.0% Over 8.5 51.6% Over 9.5 39.6%
Most: Toulouse 50.6% Most: Lyon 36.9%
Toulouse Over 4.2 49.6% Lyon Over 4.2 39.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 76.4% Over 3.5 57.0% Over 4.5 37.4%
Most: Toulouse 43.7% Most: Lyon 35.7%
Toulouse Over 1.8 62.4% Lyon Over 1.8 56.7%

Toulouse: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Zakaria Aboukhlal 2.93 1.26 0.33 64.7% 69.7% 23.9%
Emersonn 3.03 1.13 0.42 50.6% 56.4% 23.1%
Joshua King 2.67 1.07 0.32 51.1% 53.3% 19.3%
Frank Magri 2.47 0.96 0.32 46.4% 47.7% 18.8%
Santiago Hidalgo 2.29 0.83 0.28 34.8% 33.0% 13.4%

Lyon: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Endrick 3.53 1.8 0.36 79.0% 81.0% 26.8%
Georges Mikautadze 3.77 1.71 0.68 56.5% 54.7% 28.2%
Alexandre Lacazette 2.54 1.59 0.65 70.8% 58.5% 39.6%
Ernest Nuamah 2.56 1.11 0.26 39.3% 32.0% 11.1%
Pavel Sulc 2.54 0.98 0.58 46.7% 48.6% 31.1%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 38.4% draw 26.7% away 34.9%
double_chance
1X 65.1% 12 73.3% X2 61.7%
dnb
home 52.3% away 47.7%
btts
yes 56.3% no 43.7%
clean_sheet
home 26.4% away 24.4%
win_to_nil
home 19.3% away 17.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.1% home_by_2 11.5% home_by_3plus 6.8%
away_by_1 19.0% away_by_2 10.3% away_by_3plus 5.7%
correct_score
0-0 7.0% 0-1 8.0% 0-2 5.7%
0-3 2.6% 0-4 0.9% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 8.5% 1-1 12.7% 1-2 8.1%
1-3 3.6% 1-4 1.2% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.4% 2-1 8.5% 2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.5% 2-4 0.9% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 3.0% 3-1 4.0% 3-2 2.7%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.1% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.0% under_0.5 7.0% over_1.5 76.6%
under_1.5 23.5% over_2.5 51.8% under_2.5 48.2%
over_3.5 29.6% under_3.5 70.4% over_4.5 14.4%
under_4.5 85.6% over_5.5 6.1% under_5.5 93.9%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 75.6% under_0.5 24.4% over_1.5 41.2%
under_1.5 58.8% over_2.5 16.9% under_2.5 83.1%
team_away
over_0.5 73.6% under_0.5 26.4% over_1.5 38.6%
under_1.5 61.4% over_2.5 15.2% under_2.5 84.8%
most
home 38.4% draw 26.7% away 34.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.8% away_+2.5 93.2% home_-1.5 18.2%
away_+1.5 81.8% home_-0.5 38.4% away_+0.5 61.7%
home_+0.5 65.1% away_-0.5 34.9% home_+1.5 84.1%
away_-1.5 15.9% home_+2.5 94.3% away_-2.5 5.7%
total_exact
exact_0 7.0% exact_1 16.4% exact_2 24.8%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 15.2% exact_5 8.4%
exact_6 3.8% exact_7plus 2.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 25.1% draw 40.9% away 34.0%
total
over_0.5 71.2% under_0.5 28.8% over_1.5 35.3%
under_1.5 64.7% over_2.5 13.0% under_2.5 87.0%
btts
yes 21.2% no 78.8%
total_exact
exact_0 28.8% exact_1 35.9% exact_2 22.3%
exact_3 9.3% exact_4plus 3.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.9% draw 35.8% away 29.3%
total
over_0.5 79.0% under_0.5 21.0% over_1.5 46.2%
under_1.5 53.8% over_2.5 20.7% under_2.5 79.3%
btts
yes 29.2% no 70.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 19.0% H/D 4.3% H/A 1.8%
D/H 14.3% D/D 14.6% D/A 12.0%
A/H 3.0% A/D 6.3% A/A 24.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.8% under_7.5 26.2% over_8.5 62.5%
under_8.5 37.6% over_9.5 50.4% under_9.5 49.6%
over_10.5 38.8% under_10.5 61.2% over_11.5 28.4%
under_11.5 71.6% over_12.5 19.9% under_12.5 80.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.4% under_3.5 25.6% over_4.5 59.4%
under_4.5 40.6% over_5.5 44.2% under_5.5 55.8%
team_away
over_3.5 60.7% under_3.5 39.3% over_4.5 43.6%
under_4.5 56.5% over_5.5 28.7% under_5.5 71.3%
most
home 55.2% draw 10.6% away 34.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.7% away_+3.5 75.3% home_-1.5 44.3%
away_+1.5 55.7% home_-0.5 55.2% away_+0.5 44.8%
home_+0.5 65.7% away_-0.5 34.3% home_+1.5 75.2%
away_-1.5 24.8% home_+3.5 89.0% away_-3.5 11.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.4% under_22.5 38.6% over_24.5 48.7%
under_24.5 51.3% over_26.5 36.5% under_26.5 63.5%
over_28.5 25.7% under_28.5 74.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.8% under_10.5 27.2% over_12.5 56.3%
under_12.5 43.7% over_14.5 39.7% under_14.5 60.3%
team_away
over_10.5 52.0% under_10.5 48.0% over_12.5 33.8%
under_12.5 66.2% over_14.5 19.7% under_14.5 80.3%
most
home 62.6% draw 6.0% away 31.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.2% away_+4.5 62.8% home_-2.5 49.8%
away_+2.5 50.2% home_-0.5 62.6% away_+0.5 37.4%
home_+0.5 68.5% away_-0.5 31.5% home_+2.5 79.0%
away_-2.5 21.0% home_+4.5 87.1% away_-4.5 12.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 75.6% under_6.5 24.4% over_7.5 64.0%
under_7.5 36.0% over_8.5 51.6% under_8.5 48.4%
over_9.5 39.6% under_9.5 60.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 66.8% under_3.5 33.2% over_4.5 49.6%
under_4.5 50.4% over_5.5 33.8% under_5.5 66.2%
team_away
over_3.5 57.7% under_3.5 42.3% over_4.5 39.7%
under_4.5 60.3% over_5.5 24.9% under_5.5 75.1%
most
home 50.6% draw 12.5% away 36.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.9% away_+2.5 73.1% home_-0.5 50.6%
away_+0.5 49.4% home_+0.5 63.1% away_-0.5 36.9%
home_+2.5 83.3% away_-2.5 16.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 76.4% under_2.5 23.6% over_3.5 57.0%
under_3.5 43.0% over_4.5 37.4% under_4.5 62.6%
over_5.5 21.7% under_5.5 78.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 62.4% under_1.5 37.6% over_2.5 35.4%
under_2.5 64.6%
team_away
over_1.5 56.7% under_1.5 43.3% over_2.5 29.7%
under_2.5 70.3%
most
home 43.7% draw 20.6% away 35.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 25.0% away_+1.5 75.0% home_-0.5 43.7%
away_+0.5 56.3% home_+0.5 64.3% away_-0.5 35.7%
home_+1.5 81.2% away_-1.5 18.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 78.2% under_20.5 21.8% over_22.5 65.8%
under_22.5 34.2% over_24.5 51.9% under_24.5 48.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 81.9% under_9.5 18.1% over_11.5 65.2%
under_11.5 34.8% over_13.5 46.2% under_13.5 53.8%
team_away
over_9.5 69.7% under_9.5 30.3% over_11.5 49.2%
under_11.5 50.8% over_13.5 30.2% under_13.5 69.8%
most
home 58.0% draw 6.8% away 35.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 37.1% away_+3.5 62.9% home_-0.5 58.0%
away_+0.5 42.0% home_+2.5 76.9% away_-2.5 23.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 26.2% no 73.8%
home
yes 18.5% no 81.5%
away
yes 9.4% no 90.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Toulouse predictions · Lyon predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Ligue 1ToulouseLyonTrack record