La Liga
Sevilla vs 
Vallecano Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 72.9%, its strongest read on the Cards market. On the result, Sevilla are favoured at 39.2%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.8 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sevilla vs Vallecano. It tips Vallecano for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
Reading the match, Sevilla are favoured at 39.2%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Sevilla to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sevilla 3 · 2 draws · Vallecano 0 · 1.8 goals/game.
FAQ
How many cards in Sevilla vs Vallecano?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 72.9% for Sevilla vs Vallecano.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Cards-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 29 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
AI experts on this match
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| corner_specialist v1.0 | cards_over_3.5 |
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.