La LigaR. Racing Club vs Villarreal CF Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 12.9% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. That fits a balanced goals environment: 47.8% for over 2.5 and 73.6% for at least two goals. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 2-0 | 8.4% |
| 0-0 | 8.2% |
| 0-1 | 7.6% |
| 1-2 | 6.7% |
| 2-2 | 5.0% |
Score probability grid
| R. Racing Club \ Villarreal CF | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 8% | 4% | 2% | · | · |
| 1 | 11% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 4% | 5% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | 1% | · | · | · | · |
Rows = R. Racing Club goals, columns = Villarreal CF. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9%. No exact score is ever truly likely; the value is in the full distribution the model assigns. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
For the goal environment, the model sees 47.8% for three or more goals and 73.6% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given R. Racing Club favoured at 47.5%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in R. Racing Club vs Villarreal CF?
The model's most likely scoreline for R. Racing Club vs Villarreal CF is 1-1 at 12.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
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Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.