R. Racing Club vs Villarreal CF prediction & probabilities (2026-08-16)

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La Liga

R. Racing Club vs Villarreal CF Clean Sheet

2026-08-16 · 06:00
Clean Sheet33.5%Most likely clean sheet
Best predictionMost likely clean sheet · 33.5%A moderate lean, nothing emphatic. Calibrated, not a tip.
33%

model probability

ConvictionModerate

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Most likely clean sheet at 33.5%, its strongest read on the Clean Sheet market. For context, R. Racing Club are favoured at 47.5%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.

Clean Sheet

R. Racing Club clean sheet33.5%

Villarreal CF clean sheet22.4%

Probability each side concedes zero, derived from the model score matrix. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

In-depth analysis

47.5%Favoured: R. Racing Club
52.1%Both Teams to Score
47.8%Over 2.5 goals

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 33.5% on Clean Sheet, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianReads a balanced game from the 47.8% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutR. Racing Club are the model’s pick on the result at 47.5%, context for how the goals may flow.
The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

Match outlook

R. Racing Club47.5%

Draw26.9%

Villarreal CF25.6%

The model leans R. Racing Club to win. See the full prediction →

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Overall model accuracy

We don’t yet publish a graded Clean Sheet-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0097Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
54,671Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 29 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →

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Related

La LigaR. Racing ClubVillarreal CFTrack record

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.