Premier League
Newcastle vs 
Liverpool Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 54.8%, its strongest read on the Corners market. For context, Newcastle are favoured at 38.1%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 4.8 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Newcastle.
In-depth analysis
On the result, Newcastle are favoured at 38.1%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Newcastle to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Newcastle 0 · 1 draws · Liverpool 4 · 4.8 goals/game.
FAQ
How many corners in Newcastle vs Liverpool?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 54.8% for Newcastle vs Liverpool.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Corners-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 29 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Premier League, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.