Newcastle vs Liverpool prediction & probabilities (2026-08-23)

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Newcastle vs Liverpool: model prediction

Premier League
Newcastle

LWDWL

Sun, 23 Aug 202616:30UK
Liverpool

WLDLD

Model’s top convictions

83%

Over 1.5 goals

65%

Over 8.5 corners

63%

Both teams to score

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
NewcastleWin probability
38.1%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals82.6%High probabilityPays @ 1.21
Over 8.5 corners64.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.55
Both teams to score63.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.58

Model read

▾

The probabilities barely separate Newcastle and Liverpool on 23 August 2026: Newcastle nose ahead at 38%. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 61% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 63%. For shots markets, Alexander Isak is the obvious watch at 1.4 on target per 90 in recent data. The run in: Newcastle arrive W2 D1 L3, Liverpool W2 D2 L2. Squad notes: Newcastle have Livramento a doubt, Joelinton a doubt, L.Miley ruled out; Liverpool have Gomez ruled out. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Newcastle, 1 draws and 4 for Liverpool, averaging 4.8 goals a game. The engine passes here; discipline beats action.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners45.0%@ 2.22
Liverpool win38.1%@ 2.63
Over 11.5 corners35.8%@ 2.79
Medium risk

Newcastle or draw61.9%@ 1.61
Draw or Liverpool61.9%@ 1.61
Over 2.5 goals60.7%@ 1.65
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.2%@ 8.93
1-2 correct score8.4%@ 11.92
2-1 correct score8.3%@ 11.99

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Newcastle

38.1%

Draw

23.8%

Liverpool

38.1%

Model

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.582.6%

High probability

Over 2.560.7%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes63.2%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.564.7%

Strong chance

Over 9.554.8%

Good chance

Over 10.545.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.535.8%

Toss-up

Most cornersNewcastle 46.9% · Liverpool 42.8%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.582.6%2.560.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.560.7%

Discipline: NO_ODDS.

Form & head-to-head

NewcastleLWDWL
LiverpoolWLDLD

Last 5 meetings: Newcastle 0 · 1 draws · Liverpool 4 · 4.8 goals/game.

2026-01-31Liverpool 4-1 Newcastle
2025-08-25Newcastle 2-3 Liverpool
2025-02-26Liverpool 2-0 Newcastle
2024-12-04Newcastle 3-3 Liverpool
2024-01-01Liverpool 4-2 Newcastle

Referee history

Newcastle
P Bankes5 matches · team cards 1.6/g · match 4.6/g
R Jones4 matches · team cards 1.5/g · match 3.3/g
A Madley3 matches · team cards 2.7/g · match 5.3/g
Liverpool
C Kavanagh8 matches · team cards 1.3/g · match 2.9/g
A Taylor6 matches · team cards 1.3/g · match 2.8/g
D England5 matches · team cards 2.2/g · match 5.2/g

Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.

Season stats

Season 2025/26, real results only

NewcastleLiverpool
League position#12 of 20#5 of 20
Record W-D-L14-7-1717-9-12
Current streakL1D1
Points per game1.291.58
Record, home vs away10-2-77-3-9
PPG, home vs away1.681.26
Goals scored per game1.391.66
Goals conceded per game1.451.39
Scored, home vs away1.891.53
Conceded, home vs away1.581.74
1st half goals per game0.740.63
2nd half goals per game0.661.03
Corners won per game6.16.1
Cards per game1.71.5
Fouls per game10.210.1
Red cards this season21
Shots on target per game4.64.6
xG for per game1.601.77
xG against per game1.511.42
Over 2.5 rate

63.2%60.5%

BTTS rate

65.8%68.4%

Clean sheets

21.1%26.3%

Rates this season:NewcastleLiverpool

League averages this season: 2.75 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 55% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Alexander IsakNewcastle · key player
To score49.0%

@ 2.04

1+ on target73.5%

@ 1.36

2+ shots78.8%

@ 1.27

Shots/90 3.16SoT/90 1.44Goals/90 0.73
Mohamed SalahLiverpool · key player
To score42.3%

@ 2.36

1+ on target69.8%

@ 1.43

2+ shots80.5%

@ 1.24

Shots/90 3.19SoT/90 1.26Goals/90 0.58
William OsulaNewcastle · in form
To score18.9%

@ 5.29

1+ on target28.9%

@ 3.46

2+ shots16.0%

@ 6.25

Shots/90 2.75SoT/90 1.32Goals/90 0.81
Luis DíazLiverpool · in form
To score30.3%

@ 3.30

1+ on target56.5%

@ 1.77

2+ shots58.7%

@ 1.70

Shots/90 2.63SoT/90 1.11Goals/90 0.48
Harvey BarnesNewcastle · in form
To score20.4%

@ 4.90

1+ on target44.3%

@ 2.26

2+ shots51.5%

@ 1.94

Shots/90 2.95SoT/90 1Goals/90 0.39
Darwin NúñezLiverpool · in form
To score15.4%

@ 6.49

1+ on target35.1%

@ 2.85

2+ shots31.3%

@ 3.19

Shots/90 2.85SoT/90 1.09Goals/90 0.42

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Newcastle win2.67
Draw4.04
Liverpool win2.64
Both teams to score1.58

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.21
Over 2.5 goals1.65
Over 3.5 goals2.60
Over 4.5 goals4.78
Newcastle most2.67
Liverpool most2.64

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.27
Over 8.5 corners1.46
Over 9.5 corners1.75
Over 10.5 corners2.18
Newcastle most2.13
Liverpool most2.33

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.37
Over 3.5 cards1.89
Over 4.5 cards2.99
Over 5.5 cards5.38
Newcastle most3.11
Liverpool most2.13

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.26
Over 7.5 SoT1.45
Over 8.5 SoT1.73
Over 9.5 SoT2.15
Newcastle most2.04
Liverpool most2.53

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.52
Over 24.5 shots1.83
Over 26.5 shots2.32
Over 28.5 shots3.07
Newcastle most1.85
Liverpool most2.48

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.76
Over 22.5 fouls2.47
Over 24.5 fouls3.82

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • LivramentoNewcastleDoubtful75% to play
  • JoelintonNewcastleDoubtful75% to play
  • L.MileyNewcastleOut0% to play
  • GomezLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • BradleyLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • LeoniLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • EndoLiverpoolDoubtful75% to play
  • BajceticLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • EkitikéLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • DannsLiverpoolOut0% to play
  • Conor Bradley, Giovanni Leoni, Wataru Endo, Alexander Isak, Alisson BeckerLiverpoolOut
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 79.2% Over 7.5 69.0% Over 8.5 57.8% Over 9.5 46.5%
Most: Newcastle 48.9% Most: Liverpool 39.5%
Newcastle Over 4.2 52.5% Liverpool Over 4.2 45.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 73.3% Over 3.5 52.8% Over 4.5 33.4%
Most: Newcastle 32.1% Most: Liverpool 47.0%
Newcastle Over 1.8 51.2% Liverpool Over 1.8 61.9%

Newcastle: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Alexander Isak 3.16 1.44 0.73 73.5% 78.8% 49.0%
William Osula 2.75 1.32 0.81 28.9% 16.0% 18.9%
Harvey Barnes 2.95 1 0.39 44.3% 51.5% 20.4%
Anthony Gordon 2.21 0.78 0.25 46.7% 53.3% 18.3%
Jacob Murphy 1.88 0.62 0.24 33.8% 35.6% 14.8%

Liverpool: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Mohamed Salah 3.19 1.26 0.58 69.8% 80.5% 42.3%
Luis Díaz 2.63 1.11 0.48 56.5% 58.7% 30.3%
Darwin Núñez 2.85 1.09 0.42 35.1% 31.3% 15.4%
Rio Ngumoha 2.8 1.05 0.35 27.1% 20.7% 10.0%
Diogo Jota 3.86 0.98 0.45 39.2% 58.3% 20.4%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 37.4% draw 24.8% away 37.8%
double_chance
1X 62.2% 12 75.3% X2 62.6%
dnb
home 49.7% away 50.3%
btts
yes 63.2% no 36.8%
clean_sheet
home 20.7% away 20.9%
win_to_nil
home 15.8% away 16.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.8% home_by_2 11.2% home_by_3plus 7.4%
away_by_1 18.9% away_by_2 11.4% away_by_3plus 7.5%
correct_score
0-0 4.9% 0-1 6.3% 0-2 5.4%
0-3 2.8% 0-4 1.1% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 6.3% 1-1 11.2% 1-2 8.4%
1-3 4.4% 1-4 1.7% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 5.3% 2-1 8.3% 2-2 6.6%
2-3 3.5% 2-4 1.4% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 2.8% 3-1 4.4% 3-2 3.4%
3-3 1.8% 3-4 0.7% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 1.1% 4-1 1.7% 4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.7% 4-4 0.3% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.1%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.1% under_0.5 4.9% over_1.5 82.6%
under_1.5 17.4% over_2.5 60.7% under_2.5 39.3%
over_3.5 38.4% under_3.5 61.6% over_4.5 20.9%
under_4.5 79.1% over_5.5 9.9% under_5.5 90.1%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 79.1% under_0.5 20.9% over_1.5 46.4%
under_1.5 53.6% over_2.5 20.8% under_2.5 79.2%
team_away
over_0.5 79.3% under_0.5 20.7% over_1.5 46.7%
under_1.5 53.3% over_2.5 21.0% under_2.5 79.0%
most
home 37.4% draw 24.8% away 37.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.4% away_+2.5 92.6% home_-1.5 18.6%
away_+1.5 81.4% home_-0.5 37.4% away_+0.5 62.6%
home_+0.5 62.2% away_-0.5 37.8% home_+1.5 81.1%
away_-1.5 18.9% home_+2.5 92.5% away_-2.5 7.5%
total_exact
exact_0 4.9% exact_1 12.5% exact_2 21.9%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 17.5% exact_5 11.0%
exact_6 5.8% exact_7plus 4.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 35.2% draw 39.0% away 25.8%
total
over_0.5 74.0% under_0.5 26.0% over_1.5 39.0%
under_1.5 61.0% over_2.5 15.4% under_2.5 84.6%
btts
yes 23.7% no 76.3%
total_exact
exact_0 26.0% exact_1 35.0% exact_2 23.6%
exact_3 10.6% exact_4plus 4.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.4% draw 32.1% away 39.5%
total
over_0.5 84.3% under_0.5 15.7% over_1.5 55.2%
under_1.5 44.8% over_2.5 28.3% under_2.5 71.7%
btts
yes 36.0% no 64.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 24.2% H/D 6.8% H/A 4.2%
D/H 11.1% D/D 12.5% D/A 15.4%
A/H 1.9% A/D 4.1% A/A 19.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 78.7% under_7.5 21.3% over_8.5 68.6%
under_8.5 31.4% over_9.5 57.3% under_9.5 42.7%
over_10.5 45.8% under_10.5 54.2% over_11.5 35.0%
under_11.5 65.0% over_12.5 25.7% under_12.5 74.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.4% under_3.5 27.6% over_4.5 57.4%
under_4.5 42.6% over_5.5 42.7% under_5.5 57.3%
team_away
over_3.5 69.8% under_3.5 30.2% over_4.5 54.4%
under_4.5 45.6% over_5.5 39.6% under_5.5 60.5%
most
home 47.0% draw 10.0% away 43.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.5% away_+3.5 79.5% home_-1.5 37.2%
away_+1.5 62.8% home_-0.5 47.0% away_+0.5 53.0%
home_+0.5 57.1% away_-0.5 43.0% home_+1.5 66.6%
away_-1.5 33.4% home_+3.5 82.3% away_-3.5 17.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 65.9% under_22.5 34.2% over_24.5 54.5%
under_24.5 45.5% over_26.5 43.2% under_26.5 56.8%
over_28.5 32.6% under_28.5 67.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 69.8% under_10.5 30.2% over_12.5 54.3%
under_12.5 45.7% over_14.5 39.1% under_14.5 60.9%
team_away
over_10.5 61.1% under_10.5 38.9% over_12.5 44.5%
under_12.5 55.5% over_14.5 29.9% under_14.5 70.1%
most
home 53.9% draw 5.7% away 40.3%
handicap
home_-4.5 31.4% away_+4.5 68.6% home_-2.5 42.3%
away_+2.5 57.7% home_-0.5 53.9% away_+0.5 46.1%
home_+0.5 59.7% away_-0.5 40.3% home_+2.5 70.4%
away_-2.5 29.6% home_+4.5 79.6% away_-4.5 20.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 79.2% under_6.5 20.8% over_7.5 69.0%
under_7.5 31.0% over_8.5 57.8% under_8.5 42.2%
over_9.5 46.5% under_9.5 53.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.5% under_3.5 31.5% over_4.5 52.5%
under_4.5 47.5% over_5.5 37.5% under_5.5 62.5%
team_away
over_3.5 62.5% under_3.5 37.5% over_4.5 45.8%
under_4.5 54.2% over_5.5 31.1% under_5.5 68.9%
most
home 48.9% draw 11.6% away 39.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.2% away_+2.5 72.8% home_-0.5 48.9%
away_+0.5 51.1% home_+0.5 60.5% away_-0.5 39.6%
home_+2.5 80.1% away_-2.5 19.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 73.3% under_2.5 26.7% over_3.5 52.8%
under_3.5 47.2% over_4.5 33.4% under_4.5 66.6%
over_5.5 18.6% under_5.5 81.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 51.2% under_1.5 48.8% over_2.5 24.7%
under_2.5 75.3%
team_away
over_1.5 61.9% under_1.5 38.1% over_2.5 34.9%
under_2.5 65.1%
most
home 32.1% draw 20.9% away 47.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.9% away_+1.5 84.1% home_-0.5 32.1%
away_+0.5 67.9% home_+0.5 53.0% away_-0.5 47.0%
home_+1.5 72.8% away_-1.5 27.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 56.9% under_20.5 43.1% over_22.5 40.6%
under_22.5 59.4% over_24.5 26.2% under_24.5 73.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 53.8% under_9.5 46.2% over_11.5 30.9%
under_11.5 69.1% over_13.5 14.5% under_13.5 85.5%
team_away
over_9.5 70.2% under_9.5 29.8% over_11.5 48.0%
under_11.5 52.0% over_13.5 27.6% under_13.5 72.4%
most
home 33.9% draw 7.9% away 58.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 14.9% away_+3.5 85.1% home_-0.5 33.9%
away_+0.5 66.1% home_+2.5 58.3% away_-2.5 41.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 9.4% no 90.6%
home
yes 5.2% no 94.8%
away
yes 4.4% no 95.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Newcastle predictions · Liverpool predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Premier LeagueNewcastleLiverpoolTrack record