Sport-Club Freiburg vs Werder Bremen prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

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Bundesliga

Sport-Club Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Over / Under 1.5 Goals

2026-08-30 · 14:30
Over / Under 1.5 Goals78.5%Over 1.5 goals
Best predictionOver 1.5 goals · 78.5%A clear lean on the model’s numbers. Calibrated, not a tip.
79%

model probability

ConvictionStrong

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 1.5 goals at 78.5%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 1.5 Goals market. On the result, Sport-Club Freiburg are favoured at 38.4%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.

Over / Under 1.5 Goals

★ ModelOver 1.578.5%

Under 1.521.5%

Goal line guide

Line Over
Over 1.5 78.5%
Over 2.5 54.6%

Goals distribution

The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.

6.3%

0

15.2%

1

24.0%

2

22.3%

3

16.0%

4

15.5%

5+

In-depth analysis

38.4%Favoured: Sport-Club Freiburg
58.5%Both Teams to Score
54.6%Over 2.5 goals

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 78.5% on Over / Under 1.5 Goals, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianReads a balanced game from the 54.6% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutSport-Club Freiburg are the model’s pick on the result at 38.4%, context for how the goals may flow.

Match outlook

Sport-Club Freiburg38.4%

Draw26.1%

Werder Bremen35.5%

The model leans Sport-Club Freiburg to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

O

Oliver BurkeWerder Bremen · 3.61 shots/90
To score 18.3%

Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

Werder BremenWDLLL

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Overall model accuracy

We don’t yet publish a graded Over / Under 1.5 Goals-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0097Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
54,671Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →

More Bundesliga, Over / Under 1.5 Goals

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Related

BundesligaSport-Club FreiburgWerder BremenTrack record

Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.