Serie A
Roma vs 
Fiorentina Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 38.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. On the result, Roma are favoured at 55.6%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Roma.
In-depth analysis
On the result, Roma are favoured at 55.6%. How the game flows often matters more here than the pre-match favourite.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Roma to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Roma 3 · 1 draws · Fiorentina 1 · 3.6 goals/game.
FAQ
How many corners in Roma vs Fiorentina?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 38.2% for Roma vs Fiorentina.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Corners-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Serie A, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.