Nottingham Forest vs Brentford prediction & probabilities (2025-08-17)

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Nottingham Forest vs Brentford: model prediction

Premier League
Nottingham Forest
Sun, 17 Aug 2025vs
Brentford
Model’s top convictions

80%

Over 1.5 goals

65%

Over 8.5 corners

62%

Nottingham Forest or draw

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Nottingham ForestWin probability
38.0%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals79.5%High probabilityPays @ 1.26
Over 8.5 corners65.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.53
Nottingham Forest or draw62.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.61

Model read

▾

Little between these two in the data. Nottingham Forest at 38% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 17 August 2025. Three angles decide this preview: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Nottingham Forest at 43%. Caution noted. 2) No strong lean on goals (56% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) Recent form reads W2 D2 L2 for Nottingham Forest against W4 D1 L1 for Brentford. On the availability front, Nottingham Forest have John Victor, Nicolo Savona, Chris Wood, Jair Cunha, Willy Boly ruled out; Brentford have Henry ruled out, Milambo ruled out, Carvalho ruled out. For shots markets, Taiwo Awoniyi is the obvious watch at 1.3 on target per 90 in recent data. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Nottingham Forest, 1 draws and 3 for Brentford at 2.8 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.28)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners45.5%@ 2.20
Brentford win38.0%@ 2.63
Over 11.5 corners36.3%@ 2.75
Medium risk

Both teams to score59.5%@ 1.68
Over 2.5 goals56.0%@ 1.79
Over 9.5 corners55.3%@ 1.81
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.0%@ 8.33
2-1 correct score8.4%@ 11.89
1-2 correct score8.3%@ 12.03

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Nottingham Forest

38.0%-5.2%

Draw

24.1%-4.4%

Brentford

38.0%+9.7%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.28)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.579.5%

High probability

Over 2.556.0%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes59.5%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.565.3%

Strong chance

Over 9.555.3%

Good chance

Over 10.545.5%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.536.3%

Toss-up

Most cornersNottingham Forest 49.8% · Brentford 39.9%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.579.5%2.556.0%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.579.5%

Discipline: NO_BET, too extreme an outsider (fair 0.28).

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Taiwo AwoniyiNottingham Forest · key player
To score11.0%

@ 9.09

1+ on target24.3%

@ 4.12

2+ shots11.6%

@ 8.62

Shots/90 2.8SoT/90 1.34Goals/90 0.56
Yoane WissaBrentford · key player
To score40.2%

@ 2.49

1+ on target68.9%

@ 1.45

2+ shots72.7%

@ 1.38

Shots/90 2.75SoT/90 1.25Goals/90 0.55
Chris WoodNottingham Forest · in form
To score36.5%

@ 2.74

1+ on target58.0%

@ 1.72

2+ shots53.2%

@ 1.88

Shots/90 2.08SoT/90 1.01Goals/90 0.53
ThiagoBrentford · in form
To score38.2%

@ 2.62

1+ on target60.6%

@ 1.65

2+ shots55.8%

@ 1.79

Shots/90 2.25SoT/90 1.12Goals/90 0.58
Anthony ElangaNottingham Forest · in form
To score14.5%

@ 6.90

1+ on target46.9%

@ 2.13

2+ shots32.1%

@ 3.12

Shots/90 1.55SoT/90 0.85Goals/90 0.21
Bryan MbeumoBrentford · in form
To score41.1%

@ 2.43

1+ on target65.0%

@ 1.54

2+ shots66.0%

@ 1.52

Shots/90 2.26SoT/90 1.05Goals/90 0.53

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Nottingham Forest win2.66
Draw3.88
Brentford win2.73
Both teams to score1.68

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.26
Over 2.5 goals1.79
Over 3.5 goals2.97
Nottingham Forest most2.66
Brentford most2.73

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.26
Over 8.5 corners1.44
Over 9.5 corners1.73
Over 10.5 corners2.16
Nottingham Forest most2.00
Brentford most2.50

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.28
Over 3.5 cards1.69
Over 4.5 cards2.52
Over 5.5 cards4.25
Nottingham Forest most2.94
Brentford most2.18

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.31
Over 7.5 SoT1.54
Over 8.5 SoT1.88
Over 9.5 SoT2.41
Nottingham Forest most1.94
Brentford most2.75

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.53
Over 24.5 shots1.85
Over 26.5 shots2.35
Over 28.5 shots3.13
Nottingham Forest most1.70
Brentford most2.82

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.27
Over 22.5 fouls3.51
Over 24.5 fouls6.04

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • John Victor, Nicolo Savona, Chris Wood, Jair Cunha, Willy BolyNottingham ForestOut
  • HenryBrentfordOut0% to play
  • MilamboBrentfordOut0% to play
  • CarvalhoBrentfordOut0% to play
  • Fabio Carvalho, Antoni Milambo, Joshua Dasilva, Rico Henry, Mikkel Damsgaard, Aaron Hickey, Vitaly JaneltBrentfordOut
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 76.2% Over 7.5 65.1% Over 8.5 53.1% Over 9.5 41.4%
Most: Nottingham Forest 51.6% Most: Brentford 36.4%
Nottingham Forest Over 4.2 51.2% Brentford Over 4.2 40.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 78.0% Over 3.5 59.1% Over 4.5 39.6%
Most: Nottingham Forest 34.0% Most: Brentford 45.8%
Nottingham Forest Over 1.8 56.9% Brentford Over 1.8 65.0%

Nottingham Forest: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Taiwo Awoniyi 2.8 1.34 0.56 24.3% 11.6% 11.0%
Chris Wood 2.08 1.01 0.53 58.0% 53.2% 36.5%
Anthony Elanga 1.55 0.85 0.21 46.9% 32.1% 14.5%
Morgan Gibbs-White 2.16 0.79 0.33 52.4% 60.2% 26.7%
Igor Jesus 2.65 0.79 0.23 43.1% 56.4% 15.2%

Brentford: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Yoane Wissa 2.75 1.25 0.55 68.9% 72.7% 40.2%
Thiago 2.25 1.12 0.58 60.6% 55.8% 38.2%
Bryan Mbeumo 2.26 1.05 0.53 65.0% 66.0% 41.1%
Kevin Schade 1.97 0.88 0.33 49.6% 45.3% 22.6%
Dango Ouattara 2.19 0.74 0.27 44.7% 52.2% 19.4%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 37.6% draw 25.8% away 36.7%
double_chance
1X 63.3% 12 74.3% X2 62.4%
dnb
home 50.6% away 49.4%
btts
yes 59.5% no 40.5%
clean_sheet
home 23.4% away 23.0%
win_to_nil
home 17.4% away 17.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.3% home_by_2 11.2% home_by_3plus 7.0%
away_by_1 19.1% away_by_2 11.0% away_by_3plus 6.6%
correct_score
0-0 5.9% 0-1 7.2% 0-2 5.7%
0-3 2.8% 0-4 1.0% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 7.3% 1-1 12.0% 1-2 8.3%
1-3 4.0% 1-4 1.5% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 5.8% 2-1 8.4% 2-2 6.1%
2-3 3.0% 2-4 1.1% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 2.9% 3-1 4.2% 3-2 3.0%
3-3 1.5% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 1.1% 4-1 1.5% 4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.1% under_0.5 5.9% over_1.5 79.5%
under_1.5 20.5% over_2.5 56.0% under_2.5 44.0%
over_3.5 33.7% under_3.5 66.4% over_4.5 17.3%
under_4.5 82.7% over_5.5 7.7% under_5.5 92.3%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 77.0% under_0.5 23.0% over_1.5 43.3%
under_1.5 56.7% over_2.5 18.5% under_2.5 81.5%
team_away
over_0.5 76.6% under_0.5 23.4% over_1.5 42.6%
under_1.5 57.4% over_2.5 17.9% under_2.5 82.1%
most
home 37.6% draw 25.8% away 36.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.0% away_+2.5 93.0% home_-1.5 18.2%
away_+1.5 81.8% home_-0.5 37.6% away_+0.5 62.4%
home_+0.5 63.3% away_-0.5 36.7% home_+1.5 82.4%
away_-1.5 17.6% home_+2.5 93.4% away_-2.5 6.6%
total_exact
exact_0 5.9% exact_1 14.6% exact_2 23.5%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 16.4% exact_5 9.6%
exact_6 4.7% exact_7plus 3.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 35.3% draw 39.0% away 25.7%
total
over_0.5 74.0% under_0.5 26.0% over_1.5 39.0%
under_1.5 61.1% over_2.5 15.4% under_2.5 84.6%
btts
yes 23.7% no 76.3%
total_exact
exact_0 26.0% exact_1 35.0% exact_2 23.6%
exact_3 10.6% exact_4plus 4.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.0% draw 35.2% away 34.8%
total
over_0.5 80.0% under_0.5 20.0% over_1.5 47.8%
under_1.5 52.2% over_2.5 21.9% under_2.5 78.1%
btts
yes 30.5% no 69.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 25.8% H/D 6.4% H/A 3.1%
D/H 11.7% D/D 13.7% D/A 13.6%
A/H 1.9% A/D 4.4% A/A 19.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 79.3% under_7.5 20.7% over_8.5 69.2%
under_8.5 30.8% over_9.5 57.9% under_9.5 42.1%
over_10.5 46.4% under_10.5 53.6% over_11.5 35.5%
under_11.5 64.5% over_12.5 26.0% under_12.5 74.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.6% under_3.5 25.4% over_4.5 60.0%
under_4.5 40.0% over_5.5 45.3% under_5.5 54.7%
team_away
over_3.5 68.4% under_3.5 31.6% over_4.5 52.6%
under_4.5 47.4% over_5.5 37.7% under_5.5 62.3%
most
home 50.0% draw 10.0% away 40.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.6% away_+3.5 77.4% home_-1.5 40.0%
away_+1.5 60.0% home_-0.5 50.0% away_+0.5 50.0%
home_+0.5 60.0% away_-0.5 40.0% home_+1.5 69.3%
away_-1.5 30.7% home_+3.5 84.3% away_-3.5 15.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 65.5% under_22.5 34.5% over_24.5 54.1%
under_24.5 45.9% over_26.5 42.6% under_26.5 57.4%
over_28.5 32.0% under_28.5 68.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.5% under_10.5 27.5% over_12.5 57.4%
under_12.5 42.6% over_14.5 42.2% under_14.5 57.8%
team_away
over_10.5 57.2% under_10.5 42.8% over_12.5 40.4%
under_12.5 59.6% over_14.5 26.2% under_14.5 73.8%
most
home 58.9% draw 5.6% away 35.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.8% away_+4.5 64.2% home_-2.5 47.3%
away_+2.5 52.7% home_-0.5 58.9% away_+0.5 41.1%
home_+0.5 64.6% away_-0.5 35.4% home_+2.5 74.8%
away_-2.5 25.2% home_+4.5 83.2% away_-4.5 16.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 76.2% under_6.5 23.8% over_7.5 65.1%
under_7.5 34.9% over_8.5 53.1% under_8.5 46.9%
over_9.5 41.4% under_9.5 58.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.7% under_3.5 32.3% over_4.5 51.2%
under_4.5 48.8% over_5.5 35.9% under_5.5 64.1%
team_away
over_3.5 57.6% under_3.5 42.4% over_4.5 40.2%
under_4.5 59.9% over_5.5 25.7% under_5.5 74.3%
most
home 51.6% draw 12.0% away 36.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 28.5% away_+2.5 71.5% home_-0.5 51.6%
away_+0.5 48.4% home_+0.5 63.6% away_-0.5 36.4%
home_+2.5 83.2% away_-2.5 16.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 78.0% under_2.5 22.0% over_3.5 59.1%
under_3.5 40.9% over_4.5 39.6% under_4.5 60.4%
over_5.5 23.5% under_5.5 76.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 56.9% under_1.5 43.1% over_2.5 29.8%
under_2.5 70.2%
team_away
over_1.5 65.0% under_1.5 35.0% over_2.5 38.3%
under_2.5 61.8%
most
home 34.0% draw 20.1% away 45.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.8% away_+1.5 82.2% home_-0.5 34.0%
away_+0.5 66.0% home_+0.5 54.2% away_-0.5 45.8%
home_+1.5 73.0% away_-1.5 27.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 44.0% under_20.5 56.0% over_22.5 28.5%
under_22.5 71.5% over_24.5 16.6% under_24.5 83.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 51.7% under_9.5 48.3% over_11.5 29.0%
under_11.5 71.0% over_13.5 13.3% under_13.5 86.7%
team_away
over_9.5 55.6% under_9.5 44.4% over_11.5 32.6%
under_11.5 67.5% over_13.5 15.7% under_13.5 84.3%
most
home 42.9% draw 8.6% away 48.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.4% away_+3.5 79.6% home_-0.5 42.9%
away_+0.5 57.1% home_+2.5 68.2% away_-2.5 31.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 7.5% no 92.5%
home
yes 4.3% no 95.7%
away
yes 3.4% no 96.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Nottingham Forest predictions · Brentford predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Premier LeagueNottingham ForestBrentfordTrack record