Premier League
Manchester United vs 
Arsenal Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 54.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. On the result, Arsenal are favoured at 54.5%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Manchester United vs Arsenal. The model leans toward Manchester United for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
On the result, Arsenal are favoured at 54.5%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Arsenal to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
FAQ
How many cards in Manchester United vs Arsenal?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 54.4% for Manchester United vs Arsenal.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Cards-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 29 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.