Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
76.8% |
Over 7.5 |
66.1% |
Over 8.5 |
54.6% |
Over 9.5 |
43.2% |
| Most: Manchester City |
60.6% |
Most: Bournemouth |
28.4% |
| Manchester City Over 4.2 |
58.0% |
Bournemouth Over 4.2 |
34.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
76.7% |
Over 3.5 |
57.4% |
Over 4.5 |
37.8% |
| Most: Manchester City |
24.3% |
Most: Bournemouth |
56.6% |
| Manchester City Over 1.8 |
47.1% |
Bournemouth Over 1.8 |
70.2% |
Manchester City: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Erling Haaland |
3.68 |
1.82 |
0.77 |
82.7% |
86.9% |
52.4% |
| Omar Marmoush |
3.77 |
1.24 |
0.48 |
50.5% |
63.0% |
23.8% |
| Sávio |
2.57 |
0.97 |
0.07 |
41.0% |
40.7% |
3.7% |
| Antoine Semenyo |
2.15 |
0.89 |
0.44 |
56.2% |
59.3% |
33.5% |
| Tijjani Reijnders |
2.69 |
0.82 |
0.27 |
41.4% |
52.3% |
16.1% |
Bournemouth: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Enes Ünal |
6.8 |
2 |
0.6 |
22.6% |
21.7% |
7.4% |
| Antoine Semenyo |
3.14 |
1.2 |
0.38 |
69.1% |
81.1% |
31.0% |
| Eli Junior Kroupi |
2.74 |
1.11 |
0.69 |
47.2% |
46.7% |
32.8% |
| David Brooks |
3.09 |
1.06 |
0.13 |
34.1% |
34.4% |
5.0% |
| Evanilson |
2.52 |
0.94 |
0.28 |
55.4% |
63.7% |
21.4% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
57.1% |
draw |
22.9% |
away |
20.0% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
80.0% |
12 |
77.1% |
X2 |
42.9% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
23.0% |
home_by_2 |
17.6% |
home_by_3plus |
16.5% |
| away_by_1 |
12.5% |
away_by_2 |
5.4% |
away_by_3plus |
2.2% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
5.5% |
0-1 |
4.8% |
0-2 |
2.8% |
| 0-3 |
1.0% |
0-4 |
0.3% |
0-5 |
0.1% |
| 1-0 |
9.1% |
1-1 |
10.7% |
1-2 |
5.5% |
| 1-3 |
2.0% |
1-4 |
0.5% |
1-5 |
0.1% |
| 2-0 |
9.3% |
2-1 |
9.9% |
2-2 |
5.3% |
| 2-3 |
1.9% |
2-4 |
0.5% |
2-5 |
0.1% |
| 3-0 |
6.0% |
3-1 |
6.4% |
3-2 |
3.4% |
| 3-3 |
1.2% |
3-4 |
0.3% |
3-5 |
0.1% |
| 4-0 |
2.9% |
4-1 |
3.1% |
4-2 |
1.7% |
| 4-3 |
0.6% |
4-4 |
0.2% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
1.1% |
5-1 |
1.2% |
5-2 |
0.6% |
| 5-3 |
0.2% |
5-4 |
0.1% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
1.5% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
10.7% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
94.6% |
under_0.5 |
5.5% |
over_1.5 |
80.7% |
| under_1.5 |
19.3% |
over_2.5 |
57.9% |
under_2.5 |
42.1% |
| over_3.5 |
35.5% |
under_3.5 |
64.5% |
over_4.5 |
18.7% |
| under_4.5 |
81.3% |
over_5.5 |
8.5% |
under_5.5 |
91.5% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
85.6% |
under_0.5 |
14.4% |
over_1.5 |
57.7% |
| under_1.5 |
42.3% |
over_2.5 |
30.7% |
under_2.5 |
69.3% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
65.6% |
under_0.5 |
34.4% |
over_1.5 |
29.0% |
| under_1.5 |
71.0% |
over_2.5 |
9.4% |
under_2.5 |
90.6% |
|
most
| home |
57.1% |
draw |
22.9% |
away |
20.0% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
16.5% |
away_+2.5 |
83.5% |
home_-1.5 |
34.1% |
| away_+1.5 |
65.9% |
home_-0.5 |
57.1% |
away_+0.5 |
42.9% |
| home_+0.5 |
80.0% |
away_-0.5 |
20.0% |
home_+1.5 |
92.4% |
| away_-1.5 |
7.6% |
home_+2.5 |
97.8% |
away_-2.5 |
2.2% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
5.5% |
exact_1 |
13.8% |
exact_2 |
22.8% |
| exact_3 |
22.4% |
exact_4 |
16.9% |
exact_5 |
10.2% |
| exact_6 |
5.1% |
exact_7plus |
3.4% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
55.0% |
draw |
34.4% |
away |
10.6% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
74.7% |
under_0.5 |
25.4% |
over_1.5 |
39.9% |
| under_1.5 |
60.1% |
over_2.5 |
16.0% |
under_2.5 |
84.0% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
25.4% |
exact_1 |
34.8% |
exact_2 |
23.9% |
| exact_3 |
10.9% |
exact_4plus |
5.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
39.6% |
draw |
34.7% |
away |
25.7% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
80.2% |
under_0.5 |
19.8% |
over_1.5 |
48.1% |
| under_1.5 |
51.9% |
over_2.5 |
22.1% |
under_2.5 |
77.9% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
45.6% |
H/D |
6.8% |
H/A |
2.5% |
| D/H |
13.6% |
D/D |
11.9% |
D/A |
8.8% |
| A/H |
1.4% |
A/D |
2.4% |
A/A |
6.8% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
79.6% |
under_7.5 |
20.4% |
over_8.5 |
69.6% |
| under_8.5 |
30.4% |
over_9.5 |
58.5% |
under_9.5 |
41.5% |
| over_10.5 |
47.0% |
under_10.5 |
53.0% |
over_11.5 |
36.2% |
| under_11.5 |
63.8% |
over_12.5 |
26.7% |
under_12.5 |
73.3% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
80.6% |
under_3.5 |
19.5% |
over_4.5 |
67.9% |
| under_4.5 |
32.1% |
over_5.5 |
54.1% |
under_5.5 |
45.9% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
60.1% |
under_3.5 |
39.9% |
over_4.5 |
43.4% |
| under_4.5 |
56.6% |
over_5.5 |
29.1% |
under_5.5 |
70.9% |
|
most
| home |
61.5% |
draw |
9.2% |
away |
29.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
32.4% |
away_+3.5 |
67.6% |
home_-1.5 |
51.6% |
| away_+1.5 |
48.4% |
home_-0.5 |
61.5% |
away_+0.5 |
38.5% |
| home_+0.5 |
70.7% |
away_-0.5 |
29.3% |
home_+1.5 |
78.7% |
| away_-1.5 |
21.3% |
home_+3.5 |
90.3% |
away_-3.5 |
9.7% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
65.1% |
under_22.5 |
34.9% |
over_24.5 |
53.7% |
| under_24.5 |
46.3% |
over_26.5 |
42.2% |
under_26.5 |
57.8% |
| over_28.5 |
31.5% |
under_28.5 |
68.5% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
76.1% |
under_10.5 |
23.9% |
over_12.5 |
62.0% |
| under_12.5 |
38.1% |
over_14.5 |
47.0% |
under_14.5 |
53.0% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
51.3% |
under_10.5 |
48.7% |
over_12.5 |
34.6% |
| under_12.5 |
65.4% |
over_14.5 |
21.4% |
under_14.5 |
78.6% |
|
most
| home |
66.1% |
draw |
5.2% |
away |
28.7% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
43.1% |
away_+4.5 |
56.9% |
home_-2.5 |
54.8% |
| away_+2.5 |
45.2% |
home_-0.5 |
66.1% |
away_+0.5 |
33.9% |
| home_+0.5 |
71.3% |
away_-0.5 |
28.7% |
home_+2.5 |
80.4% |
| away_-2.5 |
19.6% |
home_+4.5 |
87.5% |
away_-4.5 |
12.5% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
76.8% |
under_6.5 |
23.2% |
over_7.5 |
66.1% |
| under_7.5 |
33.9% |
over_8.5 |
54.6% |
under_8.5 |
45.5% |
| over_9.5 |
43.2% |
under_9.5 |
56.8% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
73.0% |
under_3.5 |
27.0% |
over_4.5 |
58.0% |
| under_4.5 |
42.0% |
over_5.5 |
43.1% |
under_5.5 |
56.9% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
51.6% |
under_3.5 |
48.4% |
over_4.5 |
34.4% |
| under_4.5 |
65.6% |
over_5.5 |
21.1% |
under_5.5 |
78.9% |
|
most
| home |
60.6% |
draw |
11.0% |
away |
28.4% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
37.3% |
away_+2.5 |
62.7% |
home_-0.5 |
60.6% |
| away_+0.5 |
39.4% |
home_+0.5 |
71.6% |
away_-0.5 |
28.4% |
| home_+2.5 |
87.9% |
away_-2.5 |
12.1% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
76.7% |
under_2.5 |
23.3% |
over_3.5 |
57.4% |
| under_3.5 |
42.6% |
over_4.5 |
37.8% |
under_4.5 |
62.2% |
| over_5.5 |
22.1% |
under_5.5 |
77.9% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
47.1% |
under_1.5 |
52.9% |
over_2.5 |
21.3% |
| under_2.5 |
78.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
70.2% |
under_1.5 |
29.8% |
over_2.5 |
44.3% |
| under_2.5 |
55.7% |
most
| home |
24.3% |
draw |
19.0% |
away |
56.6% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
11.2% |
away_+1.5 |
88.8% |
home_-0.5 |
24.3% |
| away_+0.5 |
75.6% |
home_+0.5 |
43.4% |
away_-0.5 |
56.6% |
| home_+1.5 |
63.7% |
away_-1.5 |
36.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
56.5% |
under_20.5 |
43.5% |
over_22.5 |
40.2% |
| under_22.5 |
59.8% |
over_24.5 |
25.9% |
under_24.5 |
74.1% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
48.0% |
under_9.5 |
52.0% |
over_11.5 |
25.8% |
| under_11.5 |
74.2% |
over_13.5 |
11.3% |
under_13.5 |
88.7% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
74.0% |
under_9.5 |
26.0% |
over_11.5 |
52.7% |
| under_11.5 |
47.3% |
over_13.5 |
31.9% |
under_13.5 |
68.1% |
|
most
| home |
27.3% |
draw |
7.4% |
away |
65.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
11.0% |
away_+3.5 |
89.1% |
home_-0.5 |
27.3% |
| away_+0.5 |
72.7% |
home_+2.5 |
50.9% |
away_-2.5 |
49.1% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Premier League
Manchester City
Bournemouth