Bundesliga
Mainz vs Paderborn Clean Sheet
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Most likely clean sheet at 31.5%, its strongest read on the Clean Sheet market. For context, Mainz are favoured at 60.7%, so game state could swing this market. Their last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Clean Sheet
Probability each side concedes zero, derived from the model score matrix. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
In-depth analysis
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Mainz to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Mainz 3 · 1 draws · Paderborn 0 · 3.5 goals/game.
FAQ
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Clean Sheet-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 29 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Bundesliga, Clean Sheet
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.