Premier League
Leeds vs 
Everton Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Under 2.5 goals at 54.6%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. That fits a balanced goals environment: 45.4% for over 2.5 and 71.7% for at least two goals. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Goal line guide
| Line | Over |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 71.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 45.4% |
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
Looking at totals, the model sees 45.4% for three or more goals and 71.7% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Everton favoured at 44.0%, a competitive game tends to open up.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Everton to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Leeds vs Everton?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 45.4% for Leeds vs Everton.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 20,411 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
The model’s most recent graded Over / Under 2.5 Goals predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.