Bundesliga
FC Koln vs 
Hoffenheim Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 10.4% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. Recent output points the same way: FC Koln have averaged 1.2 scored and 2.6 conceded, Hoffenheim 1.6 and 1.8 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 64.7% for over 2.5 and 85.0% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
| 0-1 | 5.5% |
| 1-0 | 5.4% |
| 0-2 | 5.1% |
| 2-0 | 4.9% |
Score probability grid
| FC Koln \ Hoffenheim | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 5% | 10% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 | 5% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 3 | 3% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 4 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | · | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
Rows = FC Koln goals, columns = Hoffenheim. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.4%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. Darker cells carry more probability.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
0
1
2
3
4
5+
In-depth analysis
On the goals side, the model sees 64.7% for three or more goals and 85.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Hoffenheim favoured at 38.4%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: FC Koln 2 · 2 draws · Hoffenheim 1 · 3.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in FC Koln vs Hoffenheim?
The model's most likely scoreline for FC Koln vs Hoffenheim is 1-1 at 10.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
AI experts on this match
Open paper-trading picks from our model-strategy experts, a transparent lab, never advice.
| Expert | Pick |
|---|---|
| btts_specialist v1.0 | BTTS |
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Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.