Premier League
Everton vs 
Crystal Palace Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 13.1% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Everton have averaged 1.4 scored and 2.2 conceded, Crystal Palace 1.0 and 2.4 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 47.3% for over 2.5 and 73.2% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 0-0 | 8.4% |
| 0-1 | 8.3% |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
| 1-2 | 7.2% |
| 0-2 | 5.2% |
Score probability grid
| Everton \ Crystal Palace | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 1 | 10% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Everton goals, columns = Crystal Palace. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. The brightest cells are where the match is most likely to land.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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5+
In-depth analysis
For the goal environment, the model sees 47.3% for three or more goals and 73.2% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. Given Everton favoured at 41.6%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Everton 3 · 2 draws · Crystal Palace 0 · 3.0 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Everton vs Crystal Palace?
The model's most likely scoreline for Everton vs Crystal Palace is 1-1 at 13.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
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Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.