Espanol vs Levante prediction & probabilities (2026-08-16)

La Liga

Espanol vs Levante Clean Sheet

2026-08-16 · 08:00
Clean Sheet28.9%Most likely clean sheet
Best predictionMost likely clean sheet · 28.9%A clear lean on the model’s numbers. Calibrated, not a tip.
29%

model probability

ConvictionStrong

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Most likely clean sheet at 28.9%, its strongest read on the Clean Sheet market. On the result, Espanol are favoured at 42.7%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 goals a game. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.

Clean Sheet

Espanol clean sheet28.9%

Levante clean sheet22.2%

Probability each side concedes zero, derived from the model score matrix. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

In-depth analysis

42.7%Favoured: Espanol
55.8%Both Teams to Score
51.7%Over 2.5 goals

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 28.9% on Clean Sheet, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The TacticianSees a balanced game from the 51.7% over 2.5 read.
The ScoutEspanol are the model’s pick on the result at 42.7%, game state shapes how this market plays out.
The RealistThis one sits near a coin-flip, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

Match outlook

Espanol42.7%

Draw26.5%

Levante30.8%

The model leans Espanol to win. See the full prediction →

Key players

C

Carlos EspíLevante · 3.86 shots/90
To score 35.8%

Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.

Form & head-to-head

EspanolLLWWD
LevanteLWWWL

Last 5 meetings: Espanol 1 · 3 draws · Levante 1 · 3.0 goals/game.

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Overall model accuracy

We don’t yet publish a graded Clean Sheet-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0097Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
54,671Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →

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Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.