Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
73.5% |
Over 7.5 |
62.1% |
Over 8.5 |
50.2% |
Over 9.5 |
38.8% |
| Most: Brighton |
54.8% |
Most: Aston Villa |
33.4% |
| Brighton Over 4.2 |
51.2% |
Aston Villa Over 4.2 |
35.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
76.5% |
Over 3.5 |
57.1% |
Over 4.5 |
37.6% |
| Most: Brighton |
40.5% |
Most: Aston Villa |
38.8% |
| Brighton Over 1.8 |
60.3% |
Aston Villa Over 1.8 |
59.1% |
Brighton: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Danny Welbeck |
2.33 |
1.01 |
0.47 |
52.4% |
51.1% |
29.2% |
| João Pedro |
2.14 |
0.91 |
0.46 |
52.3% |
51.9% |
31.2% |
| Matt O'Riley |
2.07 |
0.72 |
0.24 |
28.4% |
25.0% |
10.6% |
| Brajan Gruda |
1.74 |
0.71 |
0.13 |
24.7% |
15.4% |
5.1% |
| Georginio Rutter |
2.39 |
0.68 |
0.21 |
35.3% |
45.3% |
12.6% |
Aston Villa: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player |
Shots/90 |
SoT/90 |
Goals/90 |
1+ SoT |
2+ shots |
To score |
| Jhon Durán |
4.96 |
2.4 |
1.12 |
52.8% |
45.9% |
29.6% |
| Donyell Malen |
4.27 |
1.87 |
0.73 |
40.2% |
32.7% |
18.2% |
| Marco Asensio |
2.88 |
1.32 |
0.36 |
57.1% |
55.1% |
20.6% |
| Ollie Watkins |
2.7 |
1.23 |
0.52 |
63.8% |
65.3% |
34.9% |
| Ross Barkley |
2.31 |
0.88 |
0.41 |
27.1% |
20.2% |
13.7% |
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
43.6% |
draw |
26.1% |
away |
30.3% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
69.8% |
12 |
73.9% |
X2 |
56.4% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
21.4% |
home_by_2 |
13.3% |
home_by_3plus |
8.9% |
| away_by_1 |
17.2% |
away_by_2 |
8.7% |
away_by_3plus |
4.4% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
6.7% |
0-1 |
7.0% |
0-2 |
4.8% |
| 0-3 |
2.0% |
0-4 |
0.6% |
0-5 |
0.2% |
| 1-0 |
8.8% |
1-1 |
12.4% |
1-2 |
7.4% |
| 1-3 |
3.1% |
1-4 |
1.0% |
1-5 |
0.2% |
| 2-0 |
7.3% |
2-1 |
9.1% |
2-2 |
5.7% |
| 2-3 |
2.4% |
2-4 |
0.8% |
2-5 |
0.2% |
| 3-0 |
3.8% |
3-1 |
4.7% |
3-2 |
2.9% |
| 3-3 |
1.2% |
3-4 |
0.4% |
3-5 |
0.1% |
| 4-0 |
1.5% |
4-1 |
1.8% |
4-2 |
1.2% |
| 4-3 |
0.5% |
4-4 |
0.2% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
0.4% |
5-1 |
0.6% |
5-2 |
0.4% |
| 5-3 |
0.2% |
5-4 |
0.1% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
0.7% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
12.4% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
93.3% |
under_0.5 |
6.7% |
over_1.5 |
77.5% |
| under_1.5 |
22.5% |
over_2.5 |
53.1% |
under_2.5 |
46.9% |
| over_3.5 |
30.9% |
under_3.5 |
69.1% |
over_4.5 |
15.3% |
| under_4.5 |
84.7% |
over_5.5 |
6.6% |
under_5.5 |
93.4% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
78.7% |
under_0.5 |
21.3% |
over_1.5 |
45.9% |
| under_1.5 |
54.1% |
over_2.5 |
20.4% |
under_2.5 |
79.6% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
71.4% |
under_0.5 |
28.6% |
over_1.5 |
35.7% |
| under_1.5 |
64.3% |
over_2.5 |
13.3% |
under_2.5 |
86.8% |
|
most
| home |
43.6% |
draw |
26.1% |
away |
30.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
8.9% |
away_+2.5 |
91.1% |
home_-1.5 |
22.2% |
| away_+1.5 |
77.8% |
home_-0.5 |
43.6% |
away_+0.5 |
56.4% |
| home_+0.5 |
69.8% |
away_-0.5 |
30.3% |
home_+1.5 |
87.0% |
| away_-1.5 |
13.1% |
home_+2.5 |
95.7% |
away_-2.5 |
4.4% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
6.7% |
exact_1 |
15.8% |
exact_2 |
24.4% |
| exact_3 |
22.2% |
exact_4 |
15.6% |
exact_5 |
8.8% |
| exact_6 |
4.1% |
exact_7plus |
2.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
33.6% |
draw |
41.3% |
away |
25.1% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
70.6% |
under_0.5 |
29.4% |
over_1.5 |
34.6% |
| under_1.5 |
65.4% |
over_2.5 |
12.6% |
under_2.5 |
87.4% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
29.4% |
exact_1 |
36.0% |
exact_2 |
22.0% |
| exact_3 |
9.0% |
exact_4plus |
3.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
35.8% |
draw |
35.7% |
away |
28.5% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
79.1% |
under_0.5 |
20.9% |
over_1.5 |
46.5% |
| under_1.5 |
53.6% |
over_2.5 |
20.8% |
under_2.5 |
79.2% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
26.1% |
H/D |
5.3% |
H/A |
2.2% |
| D/H |
14.8% |
D/D |
14.7% |
D/A |
11.8% |
| A/H |
2.5% |
A/D |
5.0% |
A/A |
17.6% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
74.7% |
under_7.5 |
25.3% |
over_8.5 |
63.6% |
| under_8.5 |
36.4% |
over_9.5 |
51.8% |
under_9.5 |
48.2% |
| over_10.5 |
40.3% |
under_10.5 |
59.7% |
over_11.5 |
29.9% |
| under_11.5 |
70.1% |
over_12.5 |
21.2% |
under_12.5 |
78.8% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
72.0% |
under_3.5 |
28.0% |
over_4.5 |
56.9% |
| under_4.5 |
43.1% |
over_5.5 |
42.1% |
under_5.5 |
57.9% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
64.0% |
under_3.5 |
36.0% |
over_4.5 |
47.7% |
| under_4.5 |
52.3% |
over_5.5 |
33.0% |
under_5.5 |
67.0% |
|
most
| home |
50.9% |
draw |
10.3% |
away |
38.8% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
22.6% |
away_+3.5 |
77.4% |
home_-1.5 |
40.6% |
| away_+1.5 |
59.4% |
home_-0.5 |
50.9% |
away_+0.5 |
49.1% |
| home_+0.5 |
61.2% |
away_-0.5 |
38.8% |
home_+1.5 |
70.7% |
| away_-1.5 |
29.3% |
home_+3.5 |
85.6% |
away_-3.5 |
14.4% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
61.1% |
under_22.5 |
38.9% |
over_24.5 |
49.4% |
| under_24.5 |
50.6% |
over_26.5 |
38.0% |
under_26.5 |
62.0% |
| over_28.5 |
27.8% |
under_28.5 |
72.2% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
72.0% |
under_10.5 |
28.0% |
over_12.5 |
56.9% |
| under_12.5 |
43.1% |
over_14.5 |
41.7% |
under_14.5 |
58.3% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
50.7% |
under_10.5 |
49.3% |
over_12.5 |
34.1% |
| under_12.5 |
65.9% |
over_14.5 |
21.0% |
under_14.5 |
79.0% |
|
most
| home |
62.9% |
draw |
5.5% |
away |
31.6% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
39.4% |
away_+4.5 |
60.6% |
home_-2.5 |
51.2% |
| away_+2.5 |
48.8% |
home_-0.5 |
62.9% |
away_+0.5 |
37.1% |
| home_+0.5 |
68.4% |
away_-0.5 |
31.6% |
home_+2.5 |
78.2% |
| away_-2.5 |
21.8% |
home_+4.5 |
85.9% |
away_-4.5 |
14.1% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
73.5% |
under_6.5 |
26.5% |
over_7.5 |
62.1% |
| under_7.5 |
37.9% |
over_8.5 |
50.1% |
under_8.5 |
49.9% |
| over_9.5 |
38.8% |
under_9.5 |
61.2% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
67.3% |
under_3.5 |
32.7% |
over_4.5 |
51.2% |
| under_4.5 |
48.8% |
over_5.5 |
36.2% |
under_5.5 |
63.8% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
52.9% |
under_3.5 |
47.1% |
over_4.5 |
35.7% |
| under_4.5 |
64.3% |
over_5.5 |
22.2% |
under_5.5 |
77.8% |
|
most
| home |
54.8% |
draw |
11.8% |
away |
33.4% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
31.3% |
away_+2.5 |
68.7% |
home_-0.5 |
54.8% |
| away_+0.5 |
45.2% |
home_+0.5 |
66.6% |
away_-0.5 |
33.4% |
| home_+2.5 |
85.1% |
away_-2.5 |
15.0% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
76.5% |
under_2.5 |
23.5% |
over_3.5 |
57.1% |
| under_3.5 |
42.9% |
over_4.5 |
37.6% |
under_4.5 |
62.4% |
| over_5.5 |
21.9% |
under_5.5 |
78.1% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
60.3% |
under_1.5 |
39.7% |
over_2.5 |
33.3% |
| under_2.5 |
66.8% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
59.1% |
under_1.5 |
40.9% |
over_2.5 |
32.1% |
| under_2.5 |
67.9% |
most
| home |
40.5% |
draw |
20.6% |
away |
38.8% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
22.5% |
away_+1.5 |
77.5% |
home_-0.5 |
40.5% |
| away_+0.5 |
59.5% |
home_+0.5 |
61.2% |
away_-0.5 |
38.8% |
| home_+1.5 |
78.8% |
away_-1.5 |
21.2% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
64.1% |
under_20.5 |
35.9% |
over_22.5 |
48.2% |
| under_22.5 |
51.8% |
over_24.5 |
32.9% |
under_24.5 |
67.1% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
76.5% |
under_9.5 |
23.5% |
over_11.5 |
56.0% |
| under_11.5 |
44.1% |
over_13.5 |
34.9% |
under_13.5 |
65.1% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
56.4% |
under_9.5 |
43.7% |
over_11.5 |
33.3% |
| under_11.5 |
66.7% |
over_13.5 |
16.2% |
under_13.5 |
83.8% |
|
most
| home |
62.0% |
draw |
7.5% |
away |
30.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
38.0% |
away_+3.5 |
62.0% |
home_-0.5 |
62.0% |
| away_+0.5 |
38.0% |
home_+2.5 |
82.0% |
away_-2.5 |
18.0% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Premier League
Brighton
Aston Villa