Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart prediction & probabilities (2026-08-28)

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Bayern Munich vs Stuttgart: model prediction

Bundesliga
Bayern Munich

WWDWW

Fri, 28 Aug 202619:30UK
Stuttgart

LDDWD

Model’s top convictions

93%

Over 1.5 goals

88%

Bayern Munich or draw

80%

Over 2.5 goals

No bet

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Bayern MunichWin probability
73.5%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals93.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.08
Bayern Munich or draw87.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.14
Over 2.5 goals80.2%High probabilityPays @ 1.25

Model read

▾

Bayern Munich go into this Bundesliga meeting with Stuttgart on 28 August 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 73%. The numbers that frame it: • Everything in the shot data points to goals, 80% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 71%. • Recent form reads W5 D1 L0 for Bayern Munich against W2 D3 L1 for Stuttgart. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 4 wins for Bayern Munich, 0 draws and 1 for Stuttgart at 4.6 goals per match. For shots markets, Harry Kane is the obvious watch at 2.2 on target per 90 in recent data. Verdict: no bet. The numbers do not clear our bar.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners41.3%@ 2.42
Over 11.5 corners32.0%@ 3.13
Medium risk

Over 9.5 corners51.5%@ 1.94
Random finds

other correct score8.0%@ 12.55
2-1 correct score8.0%@ 12.56
3-1 correct score7.7%@ 12.94

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Bayern Munich

73.5%

Draw

14.3%

Stuttgart

12.2%

Model

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.593.0%

High probability

Over 2.580.2%

High probability

BTTS · Yes71.0%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.562.1%

Strong chance

Over 9.551.5%

Good chance

Over 10.541.3%

Toss-up

Over 11.532.0%

Toss-up

Most cornersBayern Munich 61.4% · Stuttgart 28.5%

Totals line guide

0.5·1.593.0%2.580.2%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.580.2%

Discipline: NO_ODDS.

Form & head-to-head

Bayern MunichWWDWW
StuttgartLDDWD

Last 5 meetings: Bayern Munich 4 · 0 draws · Stuttgart 1 · 4.6 goals/game.

2026-04-19Bayern Munich 4-2 Stuttgart
2025-12-06Stuttgart 0-5 Bayern Munich
2025-02-28Stuttgart 1-3 Bayern Munich
2024-10-19Bayern Munich 4-0 Stuttgart
2024-05-04Stuttgart 3-1 Bayern Munich

Season stats

Season 2025/26, real results only

Bayern MunichStuttgart
League position#1 of 18#4 of 18
Record W-D-L28-5-118-8-8
Current streakW2D1
Points per game2.621.82
Record, home vs away14-2-16-5-6
PPG, home vs away2.591.35
Goals scored per game3.592.09
Goals conceded per game1.061.44
Scored, home vs away4.002.41
Conceded, home vs away1.121.94
1st half goals per game1.470.97
2nd half goals per game2.121.12
Corners won per game6.45.7
Cards per game1.81.9
Fouls per game8.89.6
Red cards this season22
Shots on target per game8.56.1
xG for per game3.082.01
xG against per game1.311.57
Over 2.5 rate

94.1%73.5%

BTTS rate

64.7%61.8%

Clean sheets

35.3%32.4%

Rates this season:Bayern MunichStuttgart

League averages this season: 3.24 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 64% · BTTS in 62%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Harry KaneBayern Munich · key player
To score63.3%

@ 1.58

1+ on target85.1%

@ 1.18

2+ shots88.9%

@ 1.12

Shots/90 4.38SoT/90 2.22Goals/90 1.17
Nicolas JacksonBayern Munich · in form
To score29.5%

@ 3.39

1+ on target58.2%

@ 1.72

2+ shots49.2%

@ 2.03

Shots/90 3.45SoT/90 1.82Goals/90 0.73
Michael OliseBayern Munich · in form
To score33.6%

@ 2.98

1+ on target71.6%

@ 1.40

2+ shots77.7%

@ 1.29

Shots/90 3.62SoT/90 1.6Goals/90 0.52

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Bayern Munich win1.46
Draw6.22
Stuttgart win6.54
Both teams to score1.41

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.07
Over 2.5 goals1.25
Over 3.5 goals1.61
Over 4.5 goals2.33
Bayern Munich most1.46
Stuttgart most6.54

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.32
Over 8.5 corners1.54
Over 9.5 corners1.89
Over 10.5 corners2.42
Bayern Munich most1.62
Stuttgart most3.50

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.50
Over 3.5 cards2.22
Over 4.5 cards3.80
Over 5.5 cards7.44
Bayern Munich most2.80
Stuttgart most2.39

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.12
Over 7.5 SoT1.21
Over 8.5 SoT1.36
Over 9.5 SoT1.57
Bayern Munich most1.46
Stuttgart most4.45

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.35
Over 24.5 shots1.59
Over 26.5 shots1.97
Over 28.5 shots2.58
Bayern Munich most1.40
Stuttgart most4.20

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.42
Over 22.5 fouls3.35
Over 24.5 fouls4.87
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 89.4% Over 7.5 82.4% Over 8.5 73.7% Over 9.5 63.5%
Most: Bayern Munich 68.4% Most: Stuttgart 22.5%
Bayern Munich Over 4.2 75.4% Stuttgart Over 4.2 43.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 66.8% Over 3.5 45.0% Over 4.5 26.3%
Most: Bayern Munich 35.7% Most: Stuttgart 41.8%
Bayern Munich Over 1.8 49.0% Stuttgart Over 1.8 53.5%

Bayern Munich: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Harry Kane 4.38 2.22 1.17 85.1% 88.9% 63.3%
Nicolas Jackson 3.45 1.82 0.73 58.2% 49.2% 29.5%
Michael Olise 3.62 1.6 0.52 71.6% 77.7% 33.6%
Leroy Sané 3.68 1.59 0.6 61.9% 65.3% 30.5%
Lennart Karl 2.98 1.49 0.35 55.4% 48.0% 17.3%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 68.6% draw 16.1% away 15.3%
double_chance
1X 84.7% 12 83.9% X2 31.4%
dnb
home 81.8% away 18.2%
btts
yes 71.0% no 29.0%
clean_sheet
home 25.2% away 5.5%
win_to_nil
home 23.5% away 3.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.2% home_by_2 18.7% home_by_3plus 30.8%
away_by_1 9.0% away_by_2 4.2% away_by_3plus 2.1%
correct_score
0-0 1.6% 0-1 1.6% 0-2 1.3%
0-3 0.6% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 3.7% 1-1 5.8% 1-2 3.8%
1-3 1.8% 1-4 0.6% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 5.8% 2-1 8.0% 2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.5% 2-4 0.9% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 5.6% 3-1 7.7% 3-2 5.3%
3-3 2.5% 3-4 0.9% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 4.1% 4-1 5.7% 4-2 3.9%
4-3 1.8% 4-4 0.6% 4-5 0.2%
5-0 2.4% 5-1 3.3% 5-2 2.3%
5-3 1.1% 5-4 0.4% 5-5 0.1%
other 8.0%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 100.0% p 8.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 98.4% under_0.5 1.6% over_1.5 93.0%
under_1.5 7.0% over_2.5 80.2% under_2.5 19.8%
over_3.5 62.3% under_3.5 37.7% over_4.5 43.0%
under_4.5 57.0% over_5.5 26.4% under_5.5 73.6%
odd_even
odd 49.4% even 50.6%
team_home
over_0.5 94.5% under_0.5 5.5% over_1.5 78.7%
under_1.5 21.3% over_2.5 55.8% under_2.5 44.2%
team_away
over_0.5 74.9% under_0.5 25.2% over_1.5 40.1%
under_1.5 59.9% over_2.5 16.2% under_2.5 83.8%
most
home 68.6% draw 16.1% away 15.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 30.8% away_+2.5 69.2% home_-1.5 49.4%
away_+1.5 50.6% home_-0.5 68.6% away_+0.5 31.4%
home_+0.5 84.7% away_-0.5 15.3% home_+1.5 93.7%
away_-1.5 6.3% home_+2.5 97.9% away_-2.5 2.1%
total_exact
exact_0 1.6% exact_1 5.3% exact_2 12.8%
exact_3 18.0% exact_4 19.3% exact_5 16.6%
exact_6 11.9% exact_7plus 14.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 50.0% draw 29.1% away 20.9%
total
over_0.5 86.5% under_0.5 13.5% over_1.5 59.5%
under_1.5 40.5% over_2.5 32.4% under_2.5 67.6%
btts
yes 37.1% no 62.9%
total_exact
exact_0 13.5% exact_1 27.0% exact_2 27.1%
exact_3 18.1% exact_4plus 14.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 64.9% draw 22.0% away 13.2%
total
over_0.5 91.7% under_0.5 8.3% over_1.5 71.0%
under_1.5 29.0% over_2.5 45.3% under_2.5 54.7%
btts
yes 40.9% no 59.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 46.0% H/D 3.0% H/A 1.0%
D/H 18.9% D/D 6.4% D/A 3.8%
A/H 6.7% A/D 5.0% A/A 9.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.9% under_7.5 24.2% over_8.5 64.9%
under_8.5 35.1% over_9.5 53.0% under_9.5 47.0%
over_10.5 41.4% under_10.5 58.6% over_11.5 30.8%
under_11.5 69.2% over_12.5 21.9% under_12.5 78.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 78.9% under_3.5 21.1% over_4.5 65.2%
under_4.5 34.8% over_5.5 50.6% under_5.5 49.5%
team_away
over_3.5 57.3% under_3.5 42.7% over_4.5 40.0%
under_4.5 60.0% over_5.5 25.7% under_5.5 74.3%
most
home 61.6% draw 9.8% away 28.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 30.6% away_+3.5 69.4% home_-1.5 51.0%
away_+1.5 49.0% home_-0.5 61.6% away_+0.5 38.4%
home_+0.5 71.4% away_-0.5 28.6% home_+1.5 79.9%
away_-1.5 20.1% home_+3.5 91.5% away_-3.5 8.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 73.8% under_22.5 26.2% over_24.5 62.7%
under_24.5 37.3% over_26.5 50.7% under_26.5 49.3%
over_28.5 38.8% under_28.5 61.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 83.9% under_10.5 16.1% over_12.5 71.3%
under_12.5 28.7% over_14.5 56.3% under_14.5 43.7%
team_away
over_10.5 54.7% under_10.5 45.4% over_12.5 36.7%
under_12.5 63.3% over_14.5 22.3% under_14.5 77.7%
most
home 71.2% draw 5.0% away 23.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 48.0% away_+4.5 52.0% home_-2.5 60.1%
away_+2.5 40.0% home_-0.5 71.2% away_+0.5 28.8%
home_+0.5 76.2% away_-0.5 23.8% home_+2.5 84.5%
away_-2.5 15.5% home_+4.5 90.6% away_-4.5 9.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 89.4% under_6.5 10.6% over_7.5 82.5%
under_7.5 17.5% over_8.5 73.7% under_8.5 26.4%
over_9.5 63.5% under_9.5 36.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 86.3% under_3.5 13.7% over_4.5 75.4%
under_4.5 24.6% over_5.5 62.3% under_5.5 37.7%
team_away
over_3.5 60.9% under_3.5 39.1% over_4.5 43.3%
under_4.5 56.7% over_5.5 28.2% under_5.5 71.8%
most
home 68.4% draw 9.2% away 22.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 47.1% away_+2.5 52.9% home_-0.5 68.4%
away_+0.5 31.6% home_+0.5 77.5% away_-0.5 22.5%
home_+2.5 90.5% away_-2.5 9.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 66.8% under_2.5 33.2% over_3.5 45.0%
under_3.5 55.0% over_4.5 26.3% under_4.5 73.7%
over_5.5 13.4% under_5.5 86.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 49.0% under_1.5 51.0% over_2.5 22.8%
under_2.5 77.2%
team_away
over_1.5 53.5% under_1.5 46.5% over_2.5 26.8%
under_2.5 73.2%
most
home 35.7% draw 22.4% away 41.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.7% away_+1.5 82.3% home_-0.5 35.7%
away_+0.5 64.3% home_+0.5 58.2% away_-0.5 41.9%
home_+1.5 77.8% away_-1.5 22.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 41.3% under_20.5 58.7% over_22.5 29.9%
under_22.5 70.1% over_24.5 20.5% under_24.5 79.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 51.3% under_9.5 48.7% over_11.5 34.5%
under_11.5 65.5% over_13.5 21.3% under_13.5 78.7%
team_away
over_9.5 45.1% under_9.5 54.9% over_11.5 28.7%
under_11.5 71.3% over_13.5 16.7% under_13.5 83.3%
most
home 51.0% draw 6.6% away 42.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 31.8% away_+3.5 68.2% home_-0.5 51.0%
away_+0.5 49.0% home_+2.5 70.1% away_-2.5 29.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 15.4% no 84.6%
home
yes 7.7% no 92.3%
away
yes 8.3% no 91.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (54671 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Bayern Munich predictions · Stuttgart predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

BundesligaBayern MunichStuttgartTrack record